Is Talent or Hard Work More Important? (Or is it Luck?)
The usual story is that success comes down to how hard you work. However, research suggests that luck is far more than just superstition. It is actually something we can influence.
A study tracking 1,000 careers over 40 years found that the most successful people were almost never the most talented. Instead, they were usually people with average abilities who simply had the most lucky breaks. In that study, a small group held nearly half the total success. The differentiator was not skill, but how many fortunate events they ran into.
This challenges how we think about promotions and credit. While talent gets you through the door, luck often determines the winner.
Success is a mix of talent and grit. Yet, when famous people talk about their careers, they usually highlight their hard graft and downplay their natural gifts. Interestingly, focusing too much on your hard work can actually backfire.
This is due to the naturalness bias. We often have more respect for someone with a natural gift than for someone who had to struggle for success. We view a natural as having limitless potential, while a hard worker is seen as someone who has gone as far as they can go.
As they say in the film The Social Network:
"A guy who builds a nice chair doesn't owe money to everyone who has ever built a chair."
We tend to worship the genius who makes it look easy. Think of a professional athlete. We are more impressed by the player who looks effortless than the one who is gasping for air, even if they score the same number of goals.
The good news is that luck is a habit. A ten-year study found that lucky people aren't better at random games like the lottery. Instead, they are simply better at four specific behaviours:
Building wide networks: They talk to acquaintances, not just close friends. New opportunities usually come from people outside your immediate circle.
Creating serendipity: They break their routines and talk to people outside their industry. New ideas happen when different worlds collide.
Reframing setbacks: They don't dwell on what went wrong. They move on quickly so they are ready for the next door to open.
Acting on 70% information: Lucky people are more confident. They commit to opportunities before they are 100% certain. While others wait for more data, the lucky person has already taken the prize.
Talent is necessary, but it is not the whole story. To have a great career, you need to be in the right place at the right time. By talking to strangers, breaking your routine, and acting fast you can improve your chances of success
Luck isn't just something that happens to you. It is something you build.
